Tech in 2020: Standing on the Shoulders of Giants

Benedict Evans – partner at Andreessen Horowitz – released a new presentation with his insights for 2020. It’s a wealth of information and gives me so much energy and inspiration! You can download the deck here. Hereunder the six points that stood out for me. 

😴New tech goes from stupid to exiting to boring (p3)
Interesting to also see this trend within KLM Mobile. From being considered one of the most innovative departments, mobile transformed into a mature touchpoint that focuses on a super dependable product. Our “Boring is the new sexy” vision, really aligns with this insight. I do think that we need a new definition of innovation. It’s not the fastest adoption of the newest fad or tool. Real innovation is solving hard customer problems in a fundamental and elegant way. That’s true innovation. 

💰Only 15% of American addressable retail is online (p15) 
$500 Billion of goods and services are purchased online. If you’ve been working in tech for a number of years, you can have the feeling that everything has already been done. Or has been crushed by FAANG, and all great opportunities are taken. This graph shows that only 15% of all money is spend online. We’re still in the middle of the goldrush! You just have to open your eyes a little wider. 

📺Netflix is the UK’s biggest TV channel (p46) 
An average person in the UK (between 13 and 34) watches 65 minutes of YouTube and 40 minutes of Netflix. Good old BBC only accounts for a measly 20 minutes of attention per day! Personally I haven’t had a regular TV connection for the last 6 years and haven’t missed DWDD or the endless parade of Dutch TV celebs for a single bit. 

🍑In 2017, 40% of Americans met their partners online (p52) 
Software eats everything, also dating. Tinder has been one of the highest grossing apps, and the company owning it makes $2 billion in revenue with dating related software! It actually surprises me, that the amount of Americans who met online was only 40%. In my dating life, offline dates were like 2% of all dates haha. 

📱What is the next generational change in scale? (p61, p64)
Roughly every 15 years there has been a new break-through technology. For smartphones, it has been the 13th year now. So what will be the next wave of innovation? Nowadays there are so many interesting and specific fields, neural interfaces, wearables, micro satellites, crypto, 5G, AR glasses. There is so much going on. I would not know on which to make my next bet. 

🦾Software ate the world, so all the world’s problems get expressed in Software (p119)
This reminds me of our current challenge of involving our KLM stakeholders more within the Digital processes. Software is everything and everywhere, this means everyone wants in. Our succes means the eventual sharing of power, roadmaps and priorities. Oh the beautiful  irony of it all. Ya’ll want to be part of the nerds now? A little too late my friends.